Budget 2026: Times Experts React

Summary

Key Points

• Borrowing is not decreasing as expected, with the OBR forecasting similar borrowing levels to the previous year, despite the government maintaining a high tax burden and record spending. 2:56
• The 2026 budget is characterized by a focus on short-term measures and "buying time" rather than long-term economic solutions, with the OBR report indicating no significant boost to growth from the budget's proposals. 5:04
• The OBR report presents a bleak economic outlook, with significant downgrades to growth forecasts and an expectation of inflation peaking around 3.8% early next year, potentially higher if geopolitical conflicts escalate. 5:44
• A major policy shift is the prioritization of cheap energy over clean energy, signaling a departure from previous net-zero commitments and potentially impacting renewable energy projects. 7:12
• The government's energy policy shift includes potentially moving green levies from electricity bills to general taxation, which is seen by some as a Treasury power grab. 9:17
• The budget is projected to lead to a second "lost decade" of flatlining real disposable incomes for ordinary people, mirroring the economic stagnation of the previous decade. 10:21
• The government's approach to welfare reform is uncertain, with rising welfare costs projected by the OBR, despite the Chancellor's stated intention to reduce them. 14:43
• The budget's housing targets of building 1.5 million new dwellings are deemed highly unlikely to be met, with projections showing a significant collapse in housing completions. 15:46
• The OBR report suggests that government policies, including increased national insurance and frozen tax thresholds, could lead to the loss of approximately 200,000 jobs over the parliament. 17:46
• Despite the bleak economic forecasts, the budget includes some measures aimed at providing relief, such as an increase in the business rates exemption threshold, which is expected to benefit small businesses. 23:18